Tony Morelli
Built by the researcher
Tony Morelli, Ph.D. – 25+ years in regulated gaming

I spent two decades inside this industry: building e-tab products, working through state regulatory filings, and watching new markets open one by one. When I started taking expert network calls, I noticed every analyst was starting from scratch with the same questions. There was no single authoritative source with actual numbers. Not news aggregation. Not consultant summary decks. Primary-source data pulled directly from regulatory agencies, manufacturer license lists, and legislative records. So I built it.

gamingmarketresearch.com

Primary-source intelligence on prediction markets & regulated gaming

Two divisions. One subscription. Event contract regulation, state enforcement tracking, and court ruling analysis on one side; charitable gaming financial data, competitor intelligence, and legislative monitoring on the other. Updated weekly.

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Two divisions. One subscription.
◈ Prediction Markets
Event Contracts & CFTC Regulation
Platform profiles, state enforcement tracking, federal court ruling analysis, and legislative monitoring across the prediction market ecosystem. Updated around major case filings and rulings.
Kalshi · $31B June volume NY AG Lawsuit · July 2026 9 states vs CFTC Polymarket · Robinhood
◎ Charitable Gaming
Electronic Pull Tabs & Bingo
Manufacturer license lists, quarterly revenue data, bill tracking, and competitor intelligence across 11 core states and 18 international markets. Primary-source data pulled directly from state regulatory agencies.
Minnesota · $4.91B Indiana · $75.6M Q1 PA · OH · NH · KY · VA Arrow · LNW · Pollard
78
Markets Tracked
2
Divisions
200+
Source Documents
323
Hearing Transcripts
Weekly
Update Cadence
1hr
Consultation/Month
Live intelligence, updated weekly
What’s in the data right now
◈ Prediction Markets
9th Circuit: unanimous against Kalshi
3-0, Aug 28
Ninth Circuit ruled 3-0 against Kalshi August 28, rejecting CFTC preemption in Nevada. First federal appellate court to rule against Kalshi. New Jersey filed a SCOTUS certiorari petition September 3 (No. 25A1465). Connecticut D.Conn. hearing set September 15 on remand motion. CFTC is actively suing 9 states; Fourth Circuit (Maryland) ruling still pending after May 7 oral arguments.
Source: 9th Circuit No. 24-16936 · NJ SCOTUS petition 25A1465 · D.Conn. docket, Sept 2026
Kalshi: market scale
4M users
4 million active users as of summer 2026; June monthly trading volume $31B (up from $16.81B in May). Series G targeting $40B valuation ($750M raise in talks with Sequoia and Wellington). Robinhood Rothera Exchange: $156M in Q2 2026 event contract revenue. DraftKings self-certified 9 football event contracts with CFTC Aug 12-14, live for the NFL season.
Source: Finance Magnates · Robinhood Q2 2026 earnings · CFTC DCM filings, Aug 2026
CLARITY Act: Senate floor, Sept 15
60 votes needed
Senate scheduled cloture vote on the CLARITY Act for September 15. The bill would establish a federal framework for event contracts, preempting state gambling laws. Odds of clearing 60-vote threshold estimated at 13-15%. If it fails, litigation in 10+ states continues as the primary regulatory battleground through at least 2027.
Source: Senate schedule · Congressional Research Service · prediction market analyst consensus, Sept 2026
◎ Charitable Gaming
Pennsylvania: enforcement countdown
Oct 13, 2026
Legislature returns mid-September with only Oct 5-7 as joint session days before the Supreme Court enforcement stay expires. Bipartisan Yaw-Williams $500/month flat fee proposal (Sept 2) and Rep. Diamond's 20% GGR modernization memo are competing frameworks; no bill text finalized. 70,000+ machines face seizure if no deal by October 13.
Source: PennWatch Sept 2026 · PA General Assembly session calendar · Lancaster Online Aug 24, 2026
Indiana: Q1 2026
$75.6M
Electronic pull-tab gross receipts in one quarter. 2,562 machines at 509 licensed locations. LNW/Grover certified in April 2026 as the newest licensed manufacturer, joining Arrow International and Diamond Game. Market now has three certified active suppliers.
Source: Indiana Gaming Commission Quarterly Report Q1 2026 · IGC supplier license list
Minnesota: FY2025 annual
$4.91B
Gross receipts from the largest charitable gaming market in the country. LNW/Grover absent from 5 consecutive MGCB board meetings through August 2026; certification still pending despite CEO naming MN as a Q2 expansion priority. Pollard Q2 2026: Minnesota eTabs at record revenue, exceeding pre-2025 regulatory levels. Active patent litigation in D. Minn. (26-cv-2747, May 2026).
Source: MGCB Annual Report FY2025 · Pollard Banknote Q2 2026 earnings · PACER docket 26-cv-2747
New Hampshire: H1 2026
$251.7M
First-half 2026 charitable gaming revenue, up 37% year-over-year. VLTs now 52% of total revenue, displacing traditional pull-tabs as the dominant format. Arrow International confirmed licensed manufacturer. SB 542 (VLT expansion) passed Senate; pending House.
Source: NH Lottery Commission H1 2026 release · CDC Gaming, Aug 2026
Competitive landscape
Arrow · LNW · Pollard · Diamond
Arrow International active in 10+ states; Ohio +E endorsement expires Oct 14, 2026 (Archer/Tab King cluster expires Sept 26). LNW paid $850M + $200M earn-out for Grover Gaming; certified in IN, OH, VA, ND, KY, NH; MN certification still pending after 5 consecutive missed board meetings. LNW Q2 net income +26% to $120M; 12,550 US charitable units. Pollard MN eTabs at record revenue Q2 2026. Diamond Game active in IN, MD, and OH.
Source: OH AG · IGC · ND AG · MGCB license lists · LNW Q2 2026 earnings · Pollard Q2 2026, Sept 2026
Legislative archive
58 hearings · 19 states
Full video-to-transcript pipeline covering 19 US states and 3 international jurisdictions. Keyword and semantic search across all transcripts. Minnesota MGCB: 18 monthly meeting videos archived. Alaska SB 170: 8 committee hearings captured. 200+ primary source documents.
Transcription: faster-whisper pipeline · legislative archive updated through July 2026
Platform Preview
The full picture, on one screen
Gaming Market Research: Global Intelligence Map
Global intelligence heatmap showing 78 markets colored by momentum score. Red = high opportunity (70+), orange = mid-high, yellow = medium. Live news ticker at top.
Momentum Rankings
Momentum Rankings: weighted composite across legislative heat, market velocity, opportunity, and revenue scale. Pennsylvania leads at 84.
Location Intelligence Panel
Per-market intelligence panel with sub-scores, regulatory status, competitor presence, and sourced insight bullets for each jurisdiction.
Financial Trend Charts
Financial trend charts: gross receipts FY2017–FY2025 from primary regulatory filings. Minnesota shown at $4.91B gross in FY2025.
AI Ask Bar
AI-powered Ask bar for natural language queries, answered from the research corpus with inline citations and source attribution.
What You Get
Everything you need to move fast across both divisions
◈
Prediction Markets Division
Company profiles on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, Robinhood Event Markets, and PredictIt. 11-location enforcement map. Court ruling tracker. CFTC regulatory updates. Circuit split analysis updated around every major filing.
🗺️
Interactive Intelligence Map
Leaflet-based world map with instant drill-down into any jurisdiction. Financial trends, regulatory status, and document archives at a click.
📊
Financial Trend Data
Gross receipts, charity distributions, operator revenues, and year-over-year comparisons from primary regulatory sources. Not news articles.
⚡
Live News Intelligence
Curated news ticker covering legislative developments, enforcement actions, new market entries, and competitor moves. Typically within days of publication.
🎯
Competitor Tracking
Arrow International, Pollard, IGT/Everi, LNW, and more. Job board signals, acquisition activity, certification filings, and market expansion patterns.
🏛️
Legislative Monitoring
Bill status, committee votes, floor timelines, and veto deadlines for every active charitable gaming bill across US states and international markets.
📁
Primary Source Document Library
200+ sourced documents: annual reports, audit findings, regulatory rules, board actions, and MGCB approval lists. Organized and searchable.
📬
Weekly Intelligence Newsletter
Curated briefings for charitable gaming and prediction markets sent separately each Monday, covering the most significant developments from the past week in each division.
💬
1 Hour Consultation/Month
Direct access for strategy discussion, custom research requests, market entry analysis, or any question your team needs answered by an expert.
Market Coverage
Core states + emerging markets + international
Charitable gaming: core active e-tab markets tracked with full financial data and legislative detail. Prediction markets: every company, active enforcement state, and federal regulatory development.
◈ Prediction Markets
COMPANIES Kalshi Polymarket ForecastEx Robinhood Event Markets PredictIt
ENFORCEMENT New York Illinois Minnesota Nevada New Jersey Michigan + 9 more
FEDERAL CFTC Third Circuit ruling SCOTUS watch Proposed rulemaking S. 4469
◎ Charitable Gaming
CORE MARKETS Ohio Minnesota Virginia Indiana North Dakota Louisiana Alaska Pennsylvania New Hampshire Kentucky New York
WATCH LIST Maine Maryland Colorado South Dakota Rhode Island Missouri
EXTENDED Michigan Wisconsin Illinois New Jersey Washington Texas Nebraska Florida
INTERNATIONAL Canada United Kingdom Netherlands Finland New Zealand Spain Colombia + 11 more
Request Access
Get access to the platform

Built for gaming operators, law firms, investors, and consultants who need primary-source data, not news summaries. Tell us about your interest and we’ll follow up to discuss access and pricing.

  • Prediction Markets division: 11-location enforcement map, company profiles, court ruling tracker, CFTC regulatory updates
  • Charitable Gaming division: 11 core states, financial data, manufacturer license lists, bill tracking
  • Live news intelligence: separate tickers for each division, updated within days
  • 200+ document library: annual reports, board actions, regulatory rules
  • Two weekly newsletters: charitable gaming + prediction markets briefings
  • 1 hour consultation/month: direct expert access for your team
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Contact
Get in touch
FAQ
Common questions
How current is the data?
The platform is updated at least weekly. Legislative developments, regulatory actions, and competitor signals are typically captured within 2–5 days. The news ticker reflects items from the past 45 days.
What does the consultation include?
One hour per month of direct access via video call for strategy discussion, custom research requests, market entry analysis, or any question your team needs answered. Unused time does not roll over.
Can I share access with my team?
Yes. Your subscription covers unlimited seats for your organization. We provision individual login credentials for each team member.
Is there a trial or demo?
Use the contact form on this page to arrange a guided demo. We don’t offer self-serve trials given the sensitive nature of the competitive intelligence.
What sources do you use?
All financial data is sourced from primary regulatory filings: state gaming commission annual reports, legislative fiscal analyses, and regulatory databases. We do not rely on secondary news aggregation for financial figures. Every claim is linked to its primary source.
What does the Prediction Markets division cover?
The prediction markets division tracks the event contract ecosystem: company profiles on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, Robinhood Event Markets, and PredictIt; state-by-state enforcement status (11+ locations with active tracking); every significant federal court ruling on CFTC preemption; congressional legislation; and the pending SCOTUS trajectory. Updated around major court filings, rulings, and regulatory actions.