Tony Morelli
Built by the researcher
Tony Morelli, Ph.D. – 25+ years in regulated gaming

I spent two decades inside this industry: building e-tab products, working through state regulatory filings, and watching new markets open one by one. When I started taking expert network calls, I noticed every analyst was starting from scratch with the same questions. There was no single authoritative source with actual numbers. Not news aggregation. Not consultant summary decks. Primary-source data pulled directly from regulatory agencies, manufacturer license lists, and legislative records. So I built it.

gamingmarketresearch.com

Primary-source intelligence on prediction markets & regulated gaming

Two divisions. One subscription. Event contract regulation, state enforcement tracking, and court ruling analysis on one side; charitable gaming financial data, competitor intelligence, and legislative monitoring on the other. Updated weekly.

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Two divisions. One subscription.
◈ Prediction Markets
Event Contracts & CFTC Regulation
Platform profiles, state enforcement tracking, federal court ruling analysis, and legislative monitoring across the prediction market ecosystem. Updated around major case filings and rulings.
Kalshi · $31B June volume NY AG Lawsuit · July 2026 9 states vs CFTC Polymarket · Robinhood
◎ Charitable Gaming
Electronic Pull Tabs & Bingo
Manufacturer license lists, quarterly revenue data, bill tracking, and competitor intelligence across 11 core states and 18 international markets. Primary-source data pulled directly from state regulatory agencies.
Minnesota · $4.91B Indiana · $75.6M Q1 PA · OH · NH · KY · VA Arrow · LNW · Pollard
78
Markets Tracked
2
Divisions
200+
Source Documents
323
Hearing Transcripts
Weekly
Update Cadence
1hr
Consultation/Month
Live intelligence, updated weekly
What’s in the data right now
◈ Prediction Markets
New York: state + federal collision
Dual front, Aug 4
NY AG and Governor Hochul sued Kalshi in NY Supreme Court July 31, alleging illegal gambling under state law. CFTC sought a federal TRO in SDNY to block the state action; Judge Rakoff denied it August 4. CFTC may refile before a different judge. The Michigan emergency override (July 14) established CFTC will use CEA § 8a(9) to protect executed trades but New York's state court challenge remains live on two tracks simultaneously.
Source: NY Attorney General press release · CFTC Press Release 9267-26 · SDNY Aug 4, 2026
Kalshi: market scale
$31B
June 2026 monthly trading volume, up from $16.81B in May. $22.42B of the June total came from World Cup contracts, which added 3M+ new users during the tournament. 2025 fee revenue: $263.5M (89% from sports contracts). Series G targeting $40B valuation. Robinhood’s Rothera Exchange posted $156M in Q2 2026 event contract revenue. The prediction market is not a niche product anymore.
Source: Finance Magnates · Robinhood Q2 2026 earnings
Federal preemption: 9-state war
3rd Cir. vs SDNY
Third Circuit ruled 2-1 for Kalshi April 6: sports event contracts are CFTC-regulated commodity swaps exempt from state gambling law. SDNY ruled the opposite in July–August. CFTC is now actively suing 9 states. Minnesota preliminary injunction granted July 27 (Menendez, D. Minn.), the first federal PI won by the CFTC against state enforcement. Fourth Circuit (Maryland) ruling still pending. SCOTUS trajectory watch.
Source: Third Circuit No. 25-1922 · CFTC Press Release 9267-26 · D. Minn. July 27, 2026
◎ Charitable Gaming
Pennsylvania: enforcement countdown
Oct 13, 2026
Legislature departed July 21 without passing HB 2557 or SB 1079. Not returning until late September, leaving roughly three weeks to act before the PA Supreme Court enforcement stay expires. Roughly 70,000 skill game machines face seizure. Tax rate impasse: Yaw 16% vs. Gebhard 35% vs. casino lobby 54%.
Source: PA General Assembly session records · Altoona Mirror · Spotlight PA, July 2026
Indiana: Q1 2026
$75.6M
Electronic pull-tab gross receipts in one quarter. 2,562 machines at 509 licensed locations. LNW/Grover certified as the fourth active supplier in April 2026, joining Arrow International, Diamond Game, and a fourth licensed manufacturer with renewal due August 31.
Source: Indiana Gaming Commission Quarterly Report Q1 2026 · IGC supplier license list
Minnesota: FY2025 annual
$4.91B
Gross receipts from the largest charitable gaming market in the country. LNW/Grover absent from all three 2026 MGCB board meetings through July; certification still pending. Active patent litigation between an e-tab technology developer and Pollard Banknote filed in federal district court, May 2026 (26-cv-2747, D. Minn.).
Source: MGCB Annual Report FY2025 · PACER docket 26-cv-2747
New Hampshire: May 2026
+30.2%
May 2026 charitable gaming revenue: $46.9M year-over-year. VLTs now 52% of total revenue, displacing traditional pull-tabs as the dominant format. Arrow International confirmed licensed manufacturer. SB 542 (VLT expansion) passed Senate; pending House.
Source: NH Lottery Commission monthly release · CDC Gaming, July 2026
Competitive landscape
Arrow · LNW · Pollard · Diamond
Arrow International active in 10+ states with +E endorsement renewal cluster in Ohio this fall (expires Oct 14, 2026). LNW paid $850M + $200M earn-out to acquire Grover Gaming, now certified in IN, OH, VA, ND, KY, NH. Pollard facing active patent challenge in federal court. Diamond Game confirmed active in IN, MD, and OH.
Source: OH AG · IGC · ND AG · MGCB · MLGCC license lists, July 2026
Legislative archive
58 hearings · 19 states
Full video-to-transcript pipeline covering 19 US states and 3 international jurisdictions. Keyword and semantic search across all transcripts. Minnesota MGCB: 18 monthly meeting videos archived. Alaska SB 170: 8 committee hearings captured. 200+ primary source documents.
Transcription: faster-whisper pipeline · legislative archive updated through July 2026
Platform Preview
The full picture, on one screen
Gaming Market Research: Global Intelligence Map
Global intelligence heatmap showing 78 markets colored by momentum score. Red = high opportunity (70+), orange = mid-high, yellow = medium. Live news ticker at top.
Momentum Rankings
Momentum Rankings: weighted composite across legislative heat, market velocity, opportunity, and revenue scale. Pennsylvania leads at 84.
Location Intelligence Panel
Per-market intelligence panel with sub-scores, regulatory status, competitor presence, and sourced insight bullets for each jurisdiction.
Financial Trend Charts
Financial trend charts: gross receipts FY2017–FY2025 from primary regulatory filings. Minnesota shown at $4.91B gross in FY2025.
AI Ask Bar
AI-powered Ask bar for natural language queries, answered from the research corpus with inline citations and source attribution.
What You Get
Everything you need to move fast across both divisions
◈
Prediction Markets Division
Company profiles on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, Robinhood Event Markets, and PredictIt. 11-location enforcement map. Court ruling tracker. CFTC regulatory updates. Circuit split analysis updated around every major filing.
🗺️
Interactive Intelligence Map
Leaflet-based world map with instant drill-down into any jurisdiction. Financial trends, regulatory status, and document archives at a click.
📊
Financial Trend Data
Gross receipts, charity distributions, operator revenues, and year-over-year comparisons from primary regulatory sources. Not news articles.
⚡
Live News Intelligence
Curated news ticker covering legislative developments, enforcement actions, new market entries, and competitor moves. Typically within days of publication.
🎯
Competitor Tracking
Arrow International, Pollard, IGT/Everi, LNW, and more. Job board signals, acquisition activity, certification filings, and market expansion patterns.
🏛️
Legislative Monitoring
Bill status, committee votes, floor timelines, and veto deadlines for every active charitable gaming bill across US states and international markets.
📁
Primary Source Document Library
200+ sourced documents: annual reports, audit findings, regulatory rules, board actions, and MGCB approval lists. Organized and searchable.
📬
Weekly Intelligence Newsletter
Curated briefings for charitable gaming and prediction markets sent separately each Monday, covering the most significant developments from the past week in each division.
💬
1 Hour Consultation/Month
Direct access for strategy discussion, custom research requests, market entry analysis, or any question your team needs answered by an expert.
Market Coverage
Core states + emerging markets + international
Charitable gaming: core active e-tab markets tracked with full financial data and legislative detail. Prediction markets: every company, active enforcement state, and federal regulatory development.
◈ Prediction Markets
COMPANIES Kalshi Polymarket ForecastEx Robinhood Event Markets PredictIt
ENFORCEMENT New York Illinois Minnesota Nevada New Jersey Michigan + 9 more
FEDERAL CFTC Third Circuit ruling SCOTUS watch Proposed rulemaking S. 4469
◎ Charitable Gaming
CORE MARKETS Ohio Minnesota Virginia Indiana North Dakota Louisiana Alaska Pennsylvania New Hampshire Kentucky New York
WATCH LIST Maine Maryland Colorado South Dakota Rhode Island Missouri
EXTENDED Michigan Wisconsin Illinois New Jersey Washington Texas Nebraska Florida
INTERNATIONAL Canada United Kingdom Netherlands Finland New Zealand Spain Colombia + 11 more
Request Access
Get access to the platform

Built for gaming operators, law firms, investors, and consultants who need primary-source data, not news summaries. Tell us about your interest and we’ll follow up to discuss access and pricing.

  • Prediction Markets division: 11-location enforcement map, company profiles, court ruling tracker, CFTC regulatory updates
  • Charitable Gaming division: 11 core states, financial data, manufacturer license lists, bill tracking
  • Live news intelligence: separate tickers for each division, updated within days
  • 200+ document library: annual reports, board actions, regulatory rules
  • Two weekly newsletters: charitable gaming + prediction markets briefings
  • 1 hour consultation/month: direct expert access for your team
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Contact
Get in touch
FAQ
Common questions
How current is the data?
The platform is updated at least weekly. Legislative developments, regulatory actions, and competitor signals are typically captured within 2–5 days. The news ticker reflects items from the past 45 days.
What does the consultation include?
One hour per month of direct access via video call for strategy discussion, custom research requests, market entry analysis, or any question your team needs answered. Unused time does not roll over.
Can I share access with my team?
Yes. Your subscription covers unlimited seats for your organization. We provision individual login credentials for each team member.
Is there a trial or demo?
Use the contact form on this page to arrange a guided demo. We don’t offer self-serve trials given the sensitive nature of the competitive intelligence.
What sources do you use?
All financial data is sourced from primary regulatory filings: state gaming commission annual reports, legislative fiscal analyses, and regulatory databases. We do not rely on secondary news aggregation for financial figures. Every claim is linked to its primary source.
What does the Prediction Markets division cover?
The prediction markets division tracks the event contract ecosystem: company profiles on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx, Robinhood Event Markets, and PredictIt; state-by-state enforcement status (11+ locations with active tracking); every significant federal court ruling on CFTC preemption; congressional legislation; and the pending SCOTUS trajectory. Updated around major court filings, rulings, and regulatory actions.